The Autumn Budget

The chancellor has a £20bn gap to plug in the upcoming Budget and with reports suggesting she won’t raise income tax rates, the focus has shifted to freezing or adjusting tax thresholds, which could raise around £8bn. 

 

That still leaves a few billion to find – and this is why property taxes have suddenly become the subject of intense speculation with rumours hitting the higher end of the market 

 

These rumours have unsettled some buyers and data taken from Zoopla shows that homes over £500,000 — a third of all homes for sale have seen fewer buyers, fewer sales agreed, fewer new listings. 

 

Meanwhile, the mainstream market (below £500k) looks steady, as buyers there are less worried about changes. 

 

The industry agrees that stamp duty needs reform. Zoopla recently told MPs it should be abolished, but that would cost £10bn a year, so any big changes would need to be paired with reform of council tax. 

The burden isn’t evenly spread: 

 

+ 70% of stamp duty comes from homes over £500,000, mostly in southern England 

+ 40% comes from the small number of homes over £1m 

+ Almost half is paid by people hit with the 3% surcharge (second homes, landlords) 

 

 

The Zoopla data reveals where the burden falls the most and the cost 

+ London: 75% pay stamp duty (around £16,000 on average). 

+ Southern England: About half pay stamp duty (around £5,000). 

+ Rest of the UK: Fewer than 10% pay anything. 

 

+ Over 90% pay stamp duty in southern England, typically £10,000–£20,000. 

+ Elsewhere, over half pay, but the typical bill is much lower (around £2,500). 

 

 

 

Stamp duty thresholds haven’t kept up with rising prices. In many southern cities – Reading, Aldershot, Southend, Bristol – buyers are paying up to £10,000, or 2–2.5% of the property price, even for average homes. 

 

A simple fix would be to raise the 5% stamp duty threshold from £250,000 to £500,000. 

 

This would reduce stamp duty to 2% for homes under £500k and make buying more affordable for typical buyers across southern England at modest cost to the Exchequer. 

 

 

Council tax currently brings in £50bn a year and helps pay for local services. Bills vary depending on the property band – a typical Band D home pays about £1,668 a year, while the most expensive Band H homes pay twice that. 

 

Some commentators have talked about doubling council tax for the top bands (G and H). That would raise around £4bn, but it would hit a small number of owners very hard. 

 

The more realistic idea being discussed in the media is much smaller – raising around £600m a year from the 10% of homes in the top bands (F, G and H). 

 

This would mean: 

 

+ Up to a 10% rise for these higher-band properties 

+ Roughly £10–£30 extra a month for affected owners 

+ Packaged politically as “higher-value homes paying more tax” 

 

 

Nothing is certain, but the evidence suggests the Budget is unlikely to hit the property market as hard as the headlines might suggest. 

 

Sales activity in 2025 has recovered to long-term norms and with so many third party industries benefitting from a positive property market, the priority for the government should be supporting this progress, not undermining it. 

 

All will be revealed tomorrow and we will look to analyse any effect in our next blog.